Third day of the new year in Beijing
Really deafening when you are in the middle of it!
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Image by mtlp via FlickrReal estate in China is expected to rebound over the coming twelve months as the central government is reversing its policies, writes real estate guru Sam Crispin in a newly released CPIM report.CPIM expect most of the government measures brought in to control the property market since 2004 to be reversed in stages. Despite a number of negative factors and declines forecast not all sectors, segments and locations are behaving in the same way.
In the Bohai Bay Area of China some cities are seeing half the number of buyers in while in others transactions are only 11% down. Tianjin and Beijing prices almost unchanged over the full year in 2008. Average land prices closed at Rmb1,380 per sq.m in Tianjin, almost 42.5% down from the previous year.
Other regions in southern parts of China showed a more negative trend, the report says.
Overall, government intervention to support the market give CPIM cause for optimism. ‘It isn’t everything, but government support in the socialist market economy counts for an awful lot, municipal governments are already moving to mop up some of the surplus inventory’ commented Mr Crispin who has been working in China real estate since 1994. At the very least Chinese banks are still standing and still lending is a key point of difference with many other markets around the world.The full report can be found here.
Sam Crispin
Image by Fons1 via FlickrShaun Rein of the China Market Research Group (CMR) explains to the newswire Bloomberg why he remains cautiously optimistic about consumer spending in China, although the number of optimists in China dropped from 70 percent in December to 60 percent now.
Shaun Rein
Maria Korolov
You see interviews with princelings recounting their memories of their fathers displayed prominently on the website. Even Mao Xinyu, the grandson of Chairman Mao (left), is trotted out frequently. The latest item goes too far, I think. First of all, instead of "princelings," they are now called "red descendants." Eh, doesn't that sound a bit like the "blood line theory," which dominated early Red Guard discourse back in the Cultural Revolution (slogan: father a hero, son good man; father reactionary, son turtle's egg). These "red descendants" are collectively wishing the Chinese people happy new year. Great! So now it's officially okay to admit that "red descendants" is a coherent social group, one that is to be admired by the people.Back in the 1980s those people would have gotten into trouble with former leader Deng Xiaoping and princelings would have to actually hide their connections, writes Shih.
Even Bo Xicheng, Bo Xilai's elusive brother, makes an appearance. Look, this looks suspiciously like the princelings' play at building up more legitimacy for themselves in preparation of Xi Jinping's takeover. It is sad to see because Chen Yun and even Xi Zhongxun himself would never have allowed such abuse of these ties in the public discourse. Where is Song Ping when you need him?Commercial
Victor Shih
Image by chooyutshing via FlickrEvery animal in the Chinese zodiac seems to have a hang-up. Is it the year of the rat or - because of the perceived evilness in the West of the rat - should it be rather called the year of the mouse? The new year has a similar problem. Is it the Year of the Ox, or should the economically inclined call it the Year of the Bull.
Marc van der ChijsThe business model we have is focused on advertising revenue. We also work on a revenue-share basis to promote webgames and MMORPGs. I use China as a testing ground for new things. I think China is ahead of the rest of the world in terms of games. In-game items and the free-to-play model all originally came from China. Our first mobile gaming site worldwide was part of the Chinese website here. We also recently started a webgame portal. We run these games ourselves with our own payment systems and everything. Before, our portals were only advertising-based but now we use the pay-for-item model as well for our webgames.Van de Chijs is very critical about the advertisement agencies, he mostly qualifies as "lazy". Spil's business model depends mostly on advertising and revenue sharing with other games and very limited in-game ads. Marc van der Chijs:
We do have in-game ads, but it is very limited still. In China, it is very difficult to find in-game advertisers because the advertising agencies are too lazy to sell these things. It's a small market for sure and they would need to invest a lot of time to do it. Even online ads are difficult in China because agencies just don’t want to sell them to their customers; it's easier for them to keep working with TV ads.More at Pacific Epoch.

Rupert Hoogewerf
Andrew K.P. Leung
Image by Getty Images via DaylifeThe China Speakers Bureau has sent out its newsletter for January 2009, with some predictions by our speakers on what to expect for 2009. Expected theme for the February 2009 newsletter: what is Barack Obama going to mean for the relations between China and the US? Click here to see our newsletter.
Kaiser Kuo
Arthur Kroeber"The message is clear: China's heavy industry sector is plagued by over-capacity and will need to readjust to a significantly weaker demand pattern than was anticipated a year ago."In less than a decade the steel output grew from 100 million tonnes to 570 tonnes and now fell back to a more sustainable 400 tonnes. Kroeber expects a soft landing but by now means an easy or short landing.
He says that hidden debt in China's corporate sector is higher than revealed by official bank-loan data, since 44 per cent of corporate capital expenditure in 2008 was financed by money whose source is literally unknowable.Commercial
Industrialisation, urbanisation and thus growth will continue, he stresses, but subject to gradually increasing constraints -- some demographic (due to the rapid ageing of the population) and environmental, others the results of deliberate government policy.
Of concern to Australia, Kroeber predicts that the resource intensity of China's growth will be far lower in the next five years than it was in the last five as a result of industrial consolidation, slower growth, and efficiency improvements.

Paul DenlingerBefore I landed in Shanghai in 1998, even after four years of living in Hong Kong, my world view was "typically American." It's difficult for non-Americans to appreciate the sense of exceptionalism we grow up with. From Ronald Reagan's stirring references to the United States as a "shining city on a hill" to civil studies that represented American democracy as the culmination of Western history, we were raised with a quasi-religious belief in Jeffersonian ideals - an inalienable right to the pursuit of happiness rooted in individualism - as the destiny of all mankind. For the past ten years, however, my job has been to advertise both Western and Chinese products to the Chinese. Some call me a sell out or, even worse, an abettor of dictators. Regardless, I quickly learned that brands must align themselves with a Chinese world view, lest they sacrifice both revenue and profit on the altar of cultural absolutism.Much more at the Huffington Post.

Rupert Hoogewerf"In the two months from early September to early November, the average wealth of the richest who own listed companies shrank by 45 percent, after an over-20 percent fall earlier in 2008," said Rupert Hoogewerf, chairman of luxury publishing group Hurun Report, which releases the Hurun Rich List of Chinese tycoons and entrepreneurs annually.Their wealth had already been hit by a dropping stock market in early 2008, hitting their wealth with an average 20 percent.
"Surprisingly, the rich we surveyed said that their average spending this year was two million yuan, which is significantly less than I expected," Hoogewerf said.Many more details at the China Daily.
International media usually report that the rich in China spend four to five million yuan a year, he added.

Sam Flemming
Zhang Lijia
Charles McElwee“The Xiamen government has now reached a consensus with Tenglong’s parent Xianglu Group to relocate the project. It has promised to pay compensation to Xianglu after the decision was approved by the central government.” Huh, why does Xiamen owe any compensation to Xianglu in this matter?Commercial
Its clear that Tenglong and its parent Xianglu feel confident enough (that means connected enough) to play hardball. That makes the accomplishments of the citizenry of Xiamen in forcing this move even more remarkable.

Pharmaceutical company respondents understood that they operate in a low trust environment and hope that a strong brand image can be used for strategic purposes to increase market share. As one respondent explained, "we believe in winning by the brand. Once you develop a good brand image you can use it as a tool to open further opportunities and create a bigger market." Creating a strong brand image and building brand awareness is especially critical to China's pharmaceutical companies as they look to win consumers' trust in the quality, safety, and effectiveness of their products.Chinese producers have started to move into developing markets, including Russia, as a marketing strategy, rather than taking on the tightly regulated and tough developed markets. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) do also better in other Asian countries.
Respondents identify cultural differences as the most challenging obstacle facing them in their move overseas. TCM manufacturers in particular fear difficulty finding demand for their drugs in Western markets, given that raw ingredients, and medicine characteristics such as taste and smell differ greatly from Western medicine's. Thus, while a full 80% of respondents produce TCM for the domestic market, only 20% of respondents are looking to take their TCM products abroad.More at Seeking Alpha.
Shaun Rein
Charles McElweeEleven projects (or 7% of the total) were rejected, “mostly coal-fired power plants or resource-intensive coal chemical plants.” This rejection rate is significantly lower than the 24% “rejected or postponed” rate reported for the first eight months of 2008, perhaps due to the new approval expediting measures.Commercial

Arthur KroeberAnother factor is the increasingly messy economics of China’s oil refining business. Through 2004, when oil prices were still fairly low, China’s net crude oil supplies reliably ran about 500,000 barrels per day ahead of the apparent demand for refined oil products – gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, jet kerosene, etc.More at the Financial Times.
But as crude prices rose from 2005, crude supply fell behind apparent product demand to the tune of about 200,000 barrels per day, mainly because the country’s pricing system created incentives for stockpiling.

William Overholt
William OverholtTo avoid another crisis, we need an ability to manage global liquidity. Theoretically that could be achieved through some kind of global central bank, or through the creation of a global currency, or through global acceptance of a set of rules with sanctions and a dispute settlement mechanism.After Communism, now Capitalism has failed and we need a new way to look at global financial structures.
The crisis of the capitalist world does not mean that socialism is a more attractive alternative. All modern experience shows that government-owned banking and industrial systems are more prone to inefficiency and crisis than market-based systems. Nonetheless, in a crisis, governments have to intervene and this often means taking ownership positions in troubled institutions. If owners of banks mismanage the banks, they should lose ownership, as they would if the government did not intervene. If governments spend vast amounts of money rescuing banks, they should get ownership positions so that taxpayers can be repaid when the banks recover. But such ownership should be temporary; after the crisis, the government's equity should be sold, with taxpayers benefiting.You can find William Overholt's full lecture here.

Kaiser KuoKuo, who joined Ogilvy in January 2007, said he would also focus on music-related projects. He is the lead guitarist for the band Spring and Autumn and was a founding member of Tang Dynasty, both of which are Chinese metal bands.

Victor ShihWhat is the "systematic trigger" which I refer to? I don't know exactly what it would be. However, if we look back in history, it can be a wide range of events, including the death of a popular leader, a serious natural disaster, the spread of a deathly infectious disease, a small student demonstration turned violent, religious groups....etc. The point is that there is an interactive effect which is quite harmless when unemployment is low (as shown last year). However, when unemployment is high, a number of different shocks can interact with unemployment to create something explosive. I think the UBS note, besides getting some numbers and history wrong, vastly underestimates the possibility of this interactive effect.Commercial

Jeremy Goldkorn"The frequency and variety of human flesh searches really flowered (last year), ranging from exposure of misbehaving children and corrupt officials to the nationalistic chasing down of people connected to the Tibetan riots," says Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of Danwei.org, a website focused on China's media.Commercial
"The searches can reveal corruption and corporate malfeasance, and issues that should be aired in an open society," he says. "But it is by nature a sensationalist phenomenon that can invade people's privacy."

Shaun Rein
Shaun Rein
Charles McElweeFirmly carry out strict environment access system and curb rapid growth of the development projects with “high energy consumption, heavy pollution and resource oriented” and industries with excessive productivity.More good intentions here.

Shaun ReinAs recently as 2001, many companies were reluctant to begin the move. Today, Chinese brand autos are sold in 188 countries and regions worldwide, for a total of 54.38 billion RMB ($7.23 billion USD) in 2007. While overseas demand for Chinese autos has slowed dramatically in recent months due to effects of the financial crisis on key markets, both auto companies like Chery and the Chinese government will continue to prioritize expansion overseas going forward as it is considered crucial to the continued growth of the Chinese auto sector, for reasons to be described below. 10 out of 10 respondents have started moving overseas, and all consider further development abroad a high priority.Just like other industries, China's automotive industry focusing on developing countries, because regulations are less strict compared to developed nations.
While 2009 will be a tough year for Chinese automakers, both in exports and domestic sales, expansion overseas will remain a key long term goal. Chinese auto companies should not be too hasty in their rush to grow abroad. Rather, they should focus energy and resources now on improving their quality and safety, and building the right brand image from the start.More at Seeking Alpha.

Paul FrenchIn the 1870s Jules Verne compared Hong Kong to a town in Kent or SurreyMore at his weblog.
In 1933 Peter Fleming toured China and compared Chengde to Windsor
He then compared Peking with Oxford for some reason!

William Bao Bean