Image by mtlp via FlickrReal estate in China is expected to rebound over the coming twelve months as the central government is reversing its policies, writes real estate guru Sam Crispin in a newly released CPIM report.
CPIM expect most of the government measures brought in to control the property market since 2004 to be reversed in stages. Despite a number of negative factors and declines forecast not all sectors, segments and locations are behaving in the same way.
In the Bohai Bay Area of China some cities are seeing half the number of buyers in while in others transactions are only 11% down. Tianjin and Beijing prices almost unchanged over the full year in 2008. Average land prices closed at Rmb1,380 per sq.m in Tianjin, almost 42.5% down from the previous year.
Other regions in southern parts of China showed a more negative trend, the report says.
Overall, government intervention to support the market give CPIM cause for optimism. ‘It isn’t everything, but government support in the socialist market economy counts for an awful lot, municipal governments are already moving to mop up some of the surplus inventory’ commented Mr Crispin who has been working in China real estate since 1994. At the very least Chinese banks are still standing and still lending is a key point of difference with many other markets around the world.
The full report can be found here.
Sam Crispin is a leading voice on China’s real estate and a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. When you need him at your conference, do get in touch.Sam Crispin
by Fons1 via Flickr