Xi Jinping has been building up a new government structure and the just-installed Central Financial Commission will be key in making financial decisions for the central government, says political analyst Victor Shih in the Financial Times. The “de facto watchdog, planner, and decision maker for China’s US$61tn financial sector, weakening the power of state institutions such as the People’s Bank of China and China Securities Regulatory Commission.”Read More →

Geopolitical tensions and the crisis in real estate have hurt consumer confidence over the past 18 months, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at ABC. He does not expect a big-scale stimulus, since the government is short of money to spend, but a slow recovery of retail is emerging, he adds.Read More →

China veteran Ian Johnson tells how he got expelled from China and what he found when he returned in 2023 to Foreign Affairs—and discovered what had changed over the past three years with COVID-19 hitting the country. He found a country is in stagnation, he tells in a gloomy diagnosis, although he also discovered dissent was not wholly stifled.Read More →

Leading economist Arthur Kroeber discusses China’s economic state and looks at the gloomy predictions from other economists. We do not have enough post-COVID-19 data to draw firm conclusions, he argues, and goes on to take down three schools of gloom in current economic thinking about China’s future, at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Read More →

China veteran Ian Johnson published earlier this month China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future, “Based on years of first-hand research in Xi Jinping’s China, Sparks challenges stereotypes of a China where the state has quashed all free thought, revealing instead a country engaged in one of humanity’s great struggles of memory against forgetting―a battle that will shape the China that emerges in the mid-21st century.” Read More →

Former China correspondent and author Ian Johnson was forced to leave the country in 2020 and revisited China earlier in 2023 for Foreign Affairs. He found a country in stagnation, that was used to double-digit growth, but lost its economic glamor, the former power base of the Communist Party. Strict government regulations changed China he knew. Also, information on his latest book Sparks: China’s Underground Historians and their Battle for the Future. Read More →

Confidence among consumers and investors in China’s economy is at a low and even getting lower in the coming weeks, says business analyst Shaun Rein to CNBC. Even a firm financial stimulus from the government like in the past is not going to work, as shortage of liquidity is not the real problem.Read More →

Former China bull Shaun Rein explains to Ian Bremmer how he changed into a bear during the corona crisis last year. In a wide-ranging exchange of thoughts, he points to the lack of trust and communication between China and the US. And is China moving in the direction of socialism?Read More →