China’s consumers are still nervous, the economy is weak, but looking good in the longer run, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC. Consumers are trading down now, but both real estate and infrastructure are not helping the economy, he adds. In the next decade, China’s middle class will grow from 400 to 800 million. Rein saw many of his clients move temporarily to Japan but is sure they will return to China.Read More →

Financial expert Victor Shih dives into the 2024 figures at the annual NPC and concludes China cannot roll over debts anymore and finance its budget like it did before. He tells Bloomberg that central state policies have increasingly replaced a market-driven economy.Read More →

Inequality has been one of China’s central problems, writes author and journalist Zhang Lijia in the South China Morning Post. There is no shortage of efforts to fix it, she argues, and while China has dealt with poverty successfully, getting to common prosperity, as it is called, seems much harder to achieve.Read More →

China will continue to focus on supporting its manufacturing power, instead of changing to household subsidies, says economist Victor Shih, out of line with many other economists who expect support for consumption, as reported by Al Jazeera. Shih added: “There are 1.4 billion people in China, so comprehensive social assistance would be extremely expensive, especially in a deflationary context.”Read More →

China’s economy is dealing with some tough years, writes leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in ChinaFile, especially now that it does not have enough tools with debts and deflation like it did in the past. “So we need to brace for the consequences of the Xi model: slower growth in China, a big rise in Chinese technology exports, and more protectionism in the rest of the world,” he writes.Read More →

Business analyst Shaun Rein dives deeper into the China economy as consumer confidence in first-tier cities is lower than he has seen in 27 years and the government’s economic targets focus on the next 3-5 years, he tells CNBC. The government is unwilling and unable to rely on stiff financial bazookas as it did in the previous crisis of 2008. Economic growth of 5 percent is enough for the government now, as it wants to diminish the gap between haves and have-nots, he adds.Read More →