While messages from the coronavirus are mixed, to put it mildly, the current economic crash course might only be over by April/May, in the most optimistic scenario. Numbers of infected people and deaths by COVID-19 still vary to much to support any scenario at this stage, while it is also unclear whether the rest of the world can contain the virus.

Footage from metro subways still show empty carriages, as the central government tries to encouraged migrant workers to return to their workplaces, local governments – including the big cities –  advise returning migrants to put themselves in a social quarantine for two weeks to be sure they do not carry the virus. The dilemma is obvious: different government make different choices when it come to prevent major economic damage or keeping their cities save from the virus. 

The trade war damages both US and China’s economy, and global trade. Financial and political analyst Victor Shih, Ho Miu Lam Chair associate professor of political economy at UC San Diego and author of the forthcoming “Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability,” gives an overview of the damage in the Los Angeles Times.

Consumers are changing their purchasing behavior because of the effects of the ongoing trade war between China and the US. Business analyst Shaun Rein tells the CityWireSelection who are the winners and losers of this war.

Major industries like travel, retail, automotive, telecom and others see their traditional business models changing very fast. At Shanghai-based SOSV managing director William Bao Bean helps startups to make money in new ways, based on data, and capture fast emerging markets, he tells at the Phocuswright Europe conference in Amsterdam last week. Companies should not cling to melting margins, but identify where money can be made, he argues.

Ctrip is one of China’s successful travel companies, but for most startups, it is a tough market to crack, said William Bao Bean, managing director of the Shanghai-based China Accelerator, last week at a travel conference in Amsterdam, according to Phocuswire.com. Bean did identify some potential success stories, though.

Consumers from China are spending less, and certainly luxury brands in the US will feel the downturn at least in the short run, says luxury consumer expert Ben Cavender to AP. Tighter visa restrictions under President Donald Trump also make it harder for Chinese shoppers to get to the United States.

China’s luxury travelers are high on the agenda of the tourism industry, and Rupert Hoogewerf, publisher of the Hurun China Rich List, sees a few major trends. Family trips are emerging as a preference, and WeChat groups of alumni of key universities a forgotten way to connect to the luxury travelers, he tells in the South China Morning Post.

Earning back the investment to gain China users for your internet startup is tough because of the high costs, says Shanghai-based investment guru William Bao Bean to travel website TTG. Just a brilliant idea is no longer enough, you need a suite of services to survive.

The Chinese government tries to shift its economy from investment-driven towards consumption, with considerable success. And the outside world is equally seeing the consumption power of the Chinese, as they travel more than ever, and spend per head more than tourists from any other country.

But tapping into that huge spending power is not always easy, and is driven by the often hard-to-predict habits of Chinese consumers, policies by the government and the powerful social media. Experts at the China Speakers Bureau are happy to give your efforts direction.

The debate is taking off on whether China would allow gambling on Hainan Island. Financial analyst Sara Hsu explains gambling would diversify the tourism industry on the island, but would also hurt the economy in nearby Macau. Two earlier efforts on Hainan were already aborted for political reasons.

The developing trade war between China and the US focuses on tariffs for commodities, while China could hurt the US really nasty by deploying its consumer power by boycotting products, tourism and US-related education. Political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, explains in Bloomberg why China has not done so.