Victor Shih

Director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, leading specialist on China’s financial and political systems

Travels from San Diego, CA, USA

What is the People’s Bank of China thinking? Victor Shih is one of very few people who can shed so light on the decision-making process of some of the world’s most important people. The Harvard-educated scholar has a profound insight in the inner workings of China’s politics, where others barely scratch the surface.

Victor Shih joined Harvard’s university in 1997 for a study in Government with a focus on comparative political economy and Chinese politics. From that moment he has developed into a leading academic in his field, with close contacts to China’s key policymakers.
In his Ph.D. “Not Quite a miracle: Factional Politics, Inflationary Cycles, and Non-Performing Loans in China”, he disseminated China’s decision making process, a work he continued in his book “Factions and Finance in China“.

Victor Shih has also consulted for the US government and the private sector on risk scenarios and “black swan” events related to China.

His subjects include China’s financial and political systems, real estate markets and risk analysis for China investments.

Ahead of the 20th Communist Party Congress in 2022, he published Coalitions of the Weak,

Victor Shih explains the background of the fall of Evergrande in 2021

Victor Shih on political economy in China

Victor Shih explains in 2018 why the PBOC, China’s central bank, might be starting printing money again.

Victor Shih is interviewed about the dangers of capital flight from China

Victor Shih addresses here the balancing of China’s assets with its debts.

Here Victor Shih talks about three reasons why China’s banking system is volatile and especially the dangers of the concentration of wealth in few hands.