Going against the comments of many fellow economic analysts, Arthur Kroeber simply does not believe China is even close to a real estate bubble, he tells the Washington Post. There is still too much room to grow, he says.
The Washington Post:
Arthur Kroeber, a Beijing-based analyst and managing director of Dragonomics, said China’s economy is “not even close” to being a bubble like those seen in Japan, which endured more than a decade of sluggish growth after prices retreated, or in the United States, which helped bring about the current sharp global downturn.
“At some point the music will stop,” Kroeber said. But he predicted that it would not happen in China for at least 15 years, when urbanization slows.
The bigger real estate problem in China now is access to housing. For many people — especially the young or people moving to the cities from rural areas — the dream of owning a home is more and more difficult to attain.