Some see Wenzhou as the canary in the coal mine; others, as an anomaly. Arthur Kroeber of Gavekal-Dragonomics said there were serious problems in the Chinese economy, but “nothing to make me think it’s going to come crashing to a halt any time soon”. The stack of bad debts can still be worked through, he believes. While the barely occupied “ghost cities” reveal high end property bubbles in several places, there is an overall housing shortage. And a shock from Europe is unlikely to be as severe as 2008, he argued.
Growth slowed to 9.1% in the third quarter of this year and Standard Chartered has just projected a rate of 8.5% for 2012-13. But if it slowed to 7% “that wouldn’t be a disaster,” Kroeber added, particularly given that the number of people joining the workforce is falling.
- China needs to import food – Arthur Kroeber (chinaspeakersbureau.info)
- China: expected to continue economic growth – Arthur Kroeber (chinaspeakersbureau.info)
- China’s right to undervalue its exchange rate – Arthur Kroeber (chinaherald.net)
- Lack of efficiency does not hurt economic growth – Arthur Kroeber (chinaspeakersbureau.info)
- Why cutting income tax does not mean much – Arthur Kroeber (chinaspeakersbureau.info)
- Rising wages in China do not create jobs in the US – Arthur Kroeber (chinaherald.net)