Chinese New Year is ahead and economists have their predictions about the country’s economy ready. Much of their gloomy prospects (Over-investment, too much debt, bubbly markets, faked data, Ponzi-like financial structures) depends on their location, observes business analyst Shaun Rein, author of The War for China’s Wallet: Profiting from the New World Order, according to Bloomberg. Those located in China tend to get the uptick in the economy better than those observing China from afar.
That negativity is a sharp contrast to the majority opinion held closer to Beijing or Shanghai. There, booming consumption, a pickup in global trade, and an increasingly innovative private sector are fueling bets that China’s generation-long economic miracle still has plenty of room to run, albeit at a slower rate than the average gross domestic product growth of almost 10 percent a year since the early 1980s. “I find it scary how many self-proclaimed US based China experts w real influence have barely lived in China, barely speak Chinese and barely have a clue …” tweeted Shaun Rein, Shanghai-based founder and managing director of China Market Research Group and author of The War for China’s Wallet, on Dec. 26. Later he was on Twitter again, wagering that the “same tired group of China’s watchers will predict China’s collapse for the 40th year in a row… and they’ll be wrong for the 40th time but western media will keep quoting them breathlessly as experts.”
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