What is Beijing’s worst nightmare? The trade war? The troubles in Hong Kong. No, says political economist Shirley Ze Yu. China’s real nightmare is a collapse of the property market, she writes in the South China Morning Post. “China’s property market is the grey rhino, overfed on massive liquidity steroids.”
Now a massive row of Chinese companies, including Alibaba, are preparing for IPO´s, both at home at abroad, insights in China´s financial industry are more important than ever,
The government wants to allow market forces to decide what financial direction the country is taking, and because more than even capital is owned by Chinese citizens, just looking at what the central government in Beijing is doing, is not longer good enough.
From a cash country, where transactions were done by moving plastic bags with money between bank branches, China has turned into a leading force in fintech or financiel technology. Mobile payment are standard. Bitcoins and blockchain technology found in China early adopters. Social media have – more than anywhere in the world – adopted payment systems to facilitate online trade.
Private companies have a hard time getting bank loans, says economist Arthur Kroeber to Barron’s. But that is nothing new, he adds, the problem is that state-owned companies get loans too easy. That division is more important than the level of China’s debts, he adds. “Too much attention has been paid to the debt problem.”
Hong Kong might have lost much importance as a gateway to mainland China, for the financial markets Beijing still needs a stable Hong Kong, says financial analyst Victor Shih in NTD. The reason Chinese entities are borrowing through Hong Kong is that the financial institutions around the world, including the International Monetary Fund, legally treat Hong Kong as a separate entity, he said.
The tech giant Alibaba listing on the Hong Kong stock market is already a sign things are changing for the US markets, and the ongoing trade war will stop many Chinese firms to list in the US, as they did in the past, especially when a bill by US Senator Marco Rubio is adopted or not, says Beida accounting professor Paul Gillis in Forbes.