Leading economist Arthur Kroeber discusses China’s economic state and looks at the gloomy predictions from other economists. We do not have enough post-COVID-19 data to draw firm conclusions, he argues, and goes on to take down three schools of gloom in current economic thinking about China’s future, at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies. Read More →

A default of the US is highly unlikely, even in the current chaotic political setting in the United States, says leading China economist Arthur Kroeber, but today the risks for China are much higher than during the 2008-2009 crisis. A crisis would not offer an opportunity to build an international financial system around the Renminbi, next to the US dollar, he adds in the ChinaFile.Read More →

China’s real economic problem: they increase capital spending, but are not able to improve productivity that is already at a shockingly low level, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, at a panel at CSIS discussing with Thomas Orlik, Chief Economist for Bloomberg Economics, and author of the book, China: The Bubble That Never Pops. While an economic collapse is unlikely, a grinding halt to economic development might be its largest danger, Kroeber adds.Read More →

Almost half a year ago the real estate giant Evergrande started to fall apart under its 300 billion US dollar debts, but the collapse – expected by many – has not yet emerged. Financial analyst Sara Hsu explains in the Commercial Observer why this collapse has not happened.Read More →

China faces not only its most prominent problem Evergrande but a range of issues, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber in the New York Times. Shortage of electricity, dealing with its big tech companies and many other in-debted giants offer similar challenges. “The common feature of these crises: All were triggered by government policies,” he writes.Read More →