In the short run, the trade deficit between China and Africa might grow. Still, in the long run, China has a profound interest in helping Africa to develop its economy, including the abolishment of trade tariffs for most African countries, says business analyst Shaun Rein at Al Jazeera. Now China focuses on getting raw material, but its interest is broader, he adds.Read More →
On the surface, government debt in China appears well-manageable, but that is because the central government pushes its costs to a local level, says financial expert Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation, in an interview on Dwarkesh Clips.Read More →
While he remains optimistic about China’s economy in the long run, he foresees a rough time in most of 2025 as deflation and layoffs melt away the financial stimuli of the past months, tells business analyst Shaun Rein at CNBC’s Squawk Box. He sees a recovery only in nine to twelve months as consumer confidence is not going up in 2025.Read More →
Financial expert Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, discusses today’s state of China’s economy at the Centre for Geopolitics with William Hurst, and how it has developed in the 25-year long collaboration between both.Read More →
Despite the hope of the international financial community, China is not heading for structural reforms, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to CNBC. Pushing up demand is not high on the agenda for China’s leadership, he says, and they do not want to push up debts levels to new heights.Read More →
Days are gone when Chinese consumers carried large plastic bags of cash to pay for houses, cars, international trips, and other big-ticket purchases. Credit cards are big among especially younger consumers, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein at the WSJ.Read More →
Political analyst Victor Shih breaks down the relations between China, the US, and the rest of the world in a discussion from the Chevron Auditorium in the I-House on “China-US Futures: Pathways to Peaceful Coexistence”. Key takeaways: many problems perceived by American politicians with China are not as bad as they try to let us believe.Read More →
Financial expert Victor Shih dives into the 2024 figures at the annual NPC and concludes China cannot roll over debts anymore and finance its budget like it did before. He tells Bloomberg that central state policies have increasingly replaced a market-driven economy.Read More →
China’s economy is dealing with some tough years, writes leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, in ChinaFile, especially now that it does not have enough tools with debts and deflation like it did in the past. “So we need to brace for the consequences of the Xi model: slower growth in China, a big rise in Chinese technology exports, and more protectionism in the rest of the world,” he writes.Read More →
Financial expert Victor Shih looks at the dilemma China faces as local debts run out of hand, while revenue is dropping, and consumer confidence is low, at a panel discussion at the Ray School of Management at the UC San Diego.Read More →
Rating agencies have been lowering China’s rating. Renowned economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, does not see an acute financial problem for the country, but costs for financing its debts will constrain its economic growth, not only for the quarters to come but for the next few years, he tells CNBC.Read More →
After a slow start, after opening up after COVID-19, China’s economy is showing slow signs of recovery this autumn, says Shanghai-based business analyst Ben Cavender in the state-owned China Daily.Read More →