While China and the US are edging towards each other, the emergences of a new world order, excluding some of the old and upcoming new forces, is a distant prospect at best, writes Arthur Kroeber in todays Financial Times.
It is perfectly accurate to note that the US and China have a uniquely symbiotic relationship, that they will soon be the two largest national economies, and that many important global problems such as climate change cannot be solved without them.
Yet none of these facts implies a Sino-American world order is a viable or a desirable outcome. Logic and evidence suggest the opposite.
Both declining forces, like Europe and Japan, and other upcoming new economies like Brazil and India will be playing a role in the near future:
More important, a G2 construct does not obviously serve US or Chinese interests. In spite of its growth, China remains far weaker than the US in economic, political and military power. Its interest lies in not being a permanent junior partner in a global duumvirate but in working to build multilateral arrangements that will constrain US power.
Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. If you need him at your conference or meeting, do get in touch.