Arthur Kroeber
Arthur Kroeber

Details about the new 5-year plan start to emerge. But political analyst Arthur Kroeber does not see a strongman Xi Jinping pushing ahead with reforms, rather the contrary, he tells Bloomberg. The inability to abandon population control all together shows that, he says.


The party communique announcing the change reaffirmed family planning as a basic national policy, despite long-standing calls by economists and demographers for more dramatic reforms to avoid population declines and complete China’s transition to a developed economy.

“The inability to scrap the childbirth-limit idea altogether is indicative of the fatal difficulty the party has on surrendering control of anything,” said Arthur Kroeber, founding partner and managing director at Gavekal Dragonomics, a research firm. “The failure to go for full abolition reflects a baseline view that the party must keep its fingers in everyone’s business all the time. And this stance is inimical to the kind of innovation-driven, consumer-oriented economy they say they want to create.”

More in Bloomberg.

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