President Trump’s rather simplistic views on foreign affairs have waken up many observers.Trump’s approach to push China on North-Korea might be just an example where easy solutions do not work, tells political analyst Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® at the South China Morning Post.

The South China Morning Post:

China’s reluctance to increase pressure on North Korea amid the country’s continuous testing of ballistic missiles is setting up a clash with US President Donald Trump over economic issues that the US cannot win, according to Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Hong Kong-based financial services firm, Gavekal Dragonomics.

“Trump has, against the advice of pretty much everyone in the traditional foreign policy establishment, now created a direct linkage between the security issues and the economic issues and the problem with that is that it’s most unlikely that the Chinese will deliver anything material in terms of constraining North Korea,” Kroeber said at an investor seminar in New York.

“When it becomes obvious later this year that the Chinese are basically paying lip service to that issue, that then creates an incentive to get tougher on China on the economic issues.”

The US does not have enough leverage against China to force Beijing’s hand on either the security or economic issues, making it unlikely that failure to agree on an approach to North Korea will lead to a trade war, Kroeber said.

“If the US does decide to get more aggressive with China on economic and trade issues, China has plenty of stuff to fight back with, and I think ultimately the loser from that confrontation would be the US.”

More at the South China Morning Post.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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