Arthur Kroeber

US president Trump seems to have been on a warpath with China. Political analyst Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® expects no real action, but – like mostly – symbolic action against his Mar-a-Lago friend Xi Jinping, he tells in the Chicago Tribune.

The Chicago Tribune:

A downturn in ties was effectively announced on Twitter on June 20, when Trump declared that China’s pressure on North Korea had “not worked out.”

Arthur Kroeber, managing director of Gavekal Dragonomics, a consulting and research firm, said Trump may have miscalculated, too.

“The basic deal Trump thought he offered Xi at the Mar-a-Lago summit — a light touch on trade in exchange for more cooperation on North Korea — was absurdly unrealistic, given China’s obvious unwillingness to change its North Korea policy,” he wrote in a client note

But Kroeber said he still did not expect Trump to embark on a “stupid and self-defeating trade war” with China.

“The more likely outcome is that he will settle for largely symbolic actions” that will “do little to change trade flows but enable him to crow to his political base that he has got tough with foreigners who are cheating Americans out of production and jobs,” he wrote.

More in the Chicago Tribune.

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