Economists seldom all agree when it comes to China’s economic future, but there is a widespread optimism about the expected country’s performance for 2018, tells leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to the South China Morning Post.
The South China Morning Post:
Optimism about the year ahead, albeit cautious, is gaining ground but there are persistent worries about China’s debt mountain and the threat of trade disputes with the United States and Europe.
Gavekal head of research Arthur Kroeber said talk of China risking a “Japan-style lost decade” of economic stagnation was banished after Beijing engineered a property and infrastructure stimulus last year.
“This credit-fuelled surge raised predictable worries that China was flirting with financial meltdown. But impressively, Beijing spent most of 2017 cracking down on financial risk, sharply cutting the growth in shadow lending – with zero impact on economic growth,” Kroeber wrote in an article published on Friday.
Kroeber said it was his bet that China could easily maintain growth while containing financial risk for at least one more year.
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