A default of the US is highly unlikely, even in the current chaotic political setting in the United States, says leading China economist Arthur Kroeber, but today the risks for China are much higher than during the 2008-2009 crisis. A crisis would not offer an opportunity to build an international financial system around the Renminbi, next to the US dollar, he adds in the ChinaFile.
The cryptocurrency market has been disrupted by interventions by China’s governments, but it certainly does not mean a full-blown ban on digital currencies, says financial analyst Winston Wenyan Ma, former managing director at China Investment Corporation (CIC), adjunct professor at NYU, and investor. The government is still defining the scope of digital currencies, and focuses on minging and trading, and is certainly no banning ownership, he says at Verify.
The trade war between China and the US is taking another casualty, says super-investor Jim Rogers: the US dollar. He will no longer bet on the US currency, as a downturn is nearing fast in a few years’ time, he tells according to News Max. Although for gamblers, buying US dollars for the short run might be an opportunity. In the long run he will switch to China’s renminbi or gold.
Getting traction from Chinese consumers is increasingly becoming harder for brands. Prada has been investing in its relationship, but has a hard time to become relevant again for their key consumers, says retail analyst Ben Cavender to CNN. CNN: China is one of the world’s biggest markets for luxury goods,
The trade negotiations between China and the US might be in their endgame, but the differences are still huge. The US wants China to stop running their economy as they have always done, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to the Asia Society blog.
China is pondering to throw in a currency deal in its trade negotiations with the US, maintaining the value of the Renminbi, to pacify the doves in the White House. But that might be a wrong idea, say analysts like economist Arthur Kroeber, who point at Japan. Japan agreed to a currency deal in 1985 as has paid for it dearly, writes the South China Morning Post.
Devaluating the Chinese Yuan can be an attractive, but also dangerous way for China to deal with the effect of the ongoing trade war, says financial and political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation to Reuters. ” It is likely that corruption is returning, which will undermine Chinese capital control measures.”