The trade war between China and the US is taking another casualty, says super-investor Jim Rogers: the US dollar. He will no longer bet on the US currency, as a downturn is nearing fast in a few years’ time, he tells according to News Max. Although for gamblers, buying US dollars for the short run might be an opportunity. In the long run he will switch to China’s renminbi or gold.
Getting traction from Chinese consumers is increasingly becoming harder for brands. Prada has been investing in its relationship, but has a hard time to become relevant again for their key consumers, says retail analyst Ben Cavender to CNN. CNN: China is one of the world’s biggest markets for luxury goods,
The trade negotiations between China and the US might be in their endgame, but the differences are still huge. The US wants China to stop running their economy as they have always done, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, to the Asia Society blog.
China is pondering to throw in a currency deal in its trade negotiations with the US, maintaining the value of the Renminbi, to pacify the doves in the White House. But that might be a wrong idea, say analysts like economist Arthur Kroeber, who point at Japan. Japan agreed to a currency deal in 1985 as has paid for it dearly, writes the South China Morning Post.
Devaluating the Chinese Yuan can be an attractive, but also dangerous way for China to deal with the effect of the ongoing trade war, says financial and political analyst Victor Shih, author of Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation to Reuters. ” It is likely that corruption is returning, which will undermine Chinese capital control measures.”
Demand for houses, both inside and outside China, fuels a strong spike in house prices, says the latest Hurun Global House Price Index 2017 Half-Year Report, set up by its chief researcher Rupert Hoogewerf. It is the first report taking the value of the Chinese Renminbi as a starting point, as most Chinese investors would do, Hoogewerf tells International Investment.
A strengthening US dollar since the election of US president-elect Donald Trump might increase the outflow pressure of the Renminbi, and China might first try more stricter measures to increase capital control, says financial specialist Victor Shih to Bloomberg. But if that fails, financial authorities might consider a more uncontrolled floating currency to get the market into balance.