Shaun Rein

US-president Donald Trump is hitting world trade like an unguided missile and many investors wonder where to put their money now China seems next on his agenda, says Shanghai-based business analyst Shaun Rein in the South China Morning Post. “(Trump) likes to use chaos in order to negotiate.” Australia and Europe could be winning.

The South China Morning Post:

The two weeks of volatility since Donald Trump took office have fuelled anxiety that investments in China will be the next victims of his hostile, unpredictable policies, analysts say.

“It’s a fearful time right now,” said Shaun Rein, managing director of China Market Research Group. “When we talk to investors, they don’t know where to put their money.”

International investors have been given a blunt reminder that US presidential pledges can do real harm to the global market….

Trump has vowed to impose a 45 per cent tariff on Chinese imports and label Beijing a currency manipulator. His administration has also angered China by talking tough on Taiwan and the South China Sea disputes – tough stances Rein believes Trump will be maintained in his dealings with China.

“He likes to use chaos in order to negotiate,” he said. “My guess is he is going to take a strong stand and criticise China on trade, currency and its military.”…

Looking at the positives, however, Rein is advising his clients to invest in naval weapons companies, which might benefit from China bolstering its navy to tighten its grip on the South China Sea.

Food producers in Australia, New Zealand and Europe might also see surging demand from Chinese consumers if agricultural imports from the US were reduced, he adds.

“Chinese consumers are still spending a lot,” he said. “There is going to be more tension between America and China. Consumers will have to buy food and commodities from Australia and Europe.”

Meantime, tourism in Asian countries could gain from a sharp decline in Chinese travelers heading to the US, Rein said.

“Many will start to think it’s unsafe because they see all the protests,” he said, and worry they are going to be targeted by “ultra-white nationalists who do not like Asians”.

More in the South China Morning Post.

Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers´request form.

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