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Arthur Kroeber

2019 was a good year for most of China’s industries, the corona virus black-lash might be rough for some industries, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber in the Financial Times. Substantial double-digit declines in many production-side economic indicators might be expected over the first three months of the year,” he added.

The Financial Times:

In the first week of February, for instance, new apartment sales dropped 90 per cent from the same period in 2019, according to preliminary data on 36 cities compiled by China Merchants Securities.

Such numbers reinforce a growing sense that China’s overall GDP performance in the first quarter of this year may shock even the pessimists.

Mr Kroeber said that in some sectors the fallout could be “horrific”, given the disruption to China’s vast manufacturing base sustained by the shortage of workers who are unable or unwilling to return to work.

“Substantial double-digit declines in many production-side economic indicators might be expected over the first three months of the year,” he added. Rebound stocks may present themselves, but calling the bottom will be tough…

Mr Kroeber said that in some sectors the fallout could be “horrific”, given the disruption to China’s vast manufacturing base sustained by the shortage of workers who are unable or unwilling to return to work.

“Substantial double-digit declines in many production-side economic indicators might be expected over the first three months of the year,” he added. Rebound stocks may present themselves, but calling the bottom will be tough.

More at Channel News Asia.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

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