U.S. President Donald Trump may be enthusiastic about the trade deal between China and the U.S., which was closed in London this week. However, business analyst Shaun Rein points out that the deal is lacking crucial details and might not work, as he notes in The Economic Times. “So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump,” he adds.
Shaun Rein:
Trump is saying the deal has been signed and he has been talking about that the Chinese are going to send rare earths and magnets in advance to whatever the United States needs because what you have seen in the last month is the lack of rare earths that were exported to the United States has really crippled the American economy.
You can have companies, the big automakers like Ford and GM are rumoured to say, we need to relocate our manufacturing to China, so we can get access to rare earths despite the heavy tariffs that they would then incur by going into the United States. But here is the thing, China’s media has been a lot more circumspect with the details of this so-called trade agreement.
China has said the rumour is that they will give maybe export licenses to rare earths on a six-month trial basis to American companies. So, basically Trump is exaggerating the win in his mind and China is being a lot more honest probably saying well we do not have all the details ironed out, we want to come to an agreement but quite frankly China has the upper hand in the trade war with the United States right now…
The United States needs a deal. Frankly, China controls about 30-35% of global manufacturing. So, America might have the money, they might have the capital, but they need to buy the products from China. At the end of the day, China makes not just rare earths, about 90% of refined rare earths, but they also make most of the ibuprofen, most of the Tylenol.
Most of the antibiotics in the world comes from China. So, at the end of the day, that is real leverage. So, for instance in 2017, 18% of Chinese exports went to the US, that number is down to 14%. China on the other hand has shifted and exports to Asean, has gone up to 16%.
So, basically, it is a game of chicken right now. China’s economy is hurting, do not get me wrong. There are about 15 million people who are involved in the export sector. You have seen that the CPI index has dropped about 0.1%. So, we are dealing with the D-word, deflation.
So, the economy in China is not booming, but China is not going to blink. They have the resolve to push hard back against Trump and Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick because at the end of the day, the Americans need to buy from China. They cannot buy antibiotics from any other country in the world except for a little bit from India.
Shaun Rein is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.
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