Arthur Kroeber

China as a country is much stronger than Japan was when it got into a trade war with the US in the 1980s, says economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®. Unlike Japan, China will not give in to any demands from the US, especially when those demands are hard to guess, he tells the Hellenic Shipping News.

The Hellenic Shipping News:

Beijing has not been shy in pushing back at the US, either in talking tough or in retaliating with new tariffs of its own. In its confrontations 30 years ago, Tokyo could not be so bold. Japan was in a far weaker position because of its economic reliance on exports generally and the US market particularly.

Arthur Kroeber, co-founder and research head with China-focused Gavekal Dragonomics, based in Hong Kong, said that deep underlying frictions with China would not quickly go away as long as the US was not completely clear about its objectives.

“The US playbook for this competition is still being written,” he said. “China is in a strong position and will not soon budge on the key issues that anger its trade partners.”…

Gavekal’s Kroeber also ruled out a quick solution to end the friction and expected the economic rivalry to continue “on a high simmer”.

“China will not retreat from its industrial policy goals, and the US will not be fobbed off with the usual concessions”.

More in the Hellenic Shipping News.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the trade war between China and the US? Do check out this list.

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