Arthur Kroeber

The markets have given up trying to make sense out of the direction of the trade war between China and the US is taking. Economist Arthur Kroeber sees three possible scenario’s for the conflict but is hesitant to pick one, he says in Barron’s.


Gavekal Research’s Arthur Kroeber notes that there are three possible outcomes. First, the two sides could sit down and get a deal hashed out in a matter of weeks. Second, negotiations could take months and only reach a conclusion after the U.S. and China decide they can’t take anymore pain to their economies or markets. Finally, the trade war could become the status quo. “While the first outcome is the most likely and the third the least, the probability of each individual outcome is less than 50%,” Kroeber writes. “Therefore our only certainty now is continued uncertainty.”

And the market reflects that.

More in Barron’s.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the ongoing trade war between China and the US at the China Speakers Bureau? Do check out this list.


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