Arthur Kroeber

A limited trade deal might be in the pipeline for the coming weeks, says leading economist Arthur Kroeber, author of China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know® in the Stock Daily Dish. But the trade war is far from over, he warns. “There is a material risk (say 20 to 25%) that we don‘t get a deal.”

Stock Daily Dish:

“My baseline scenario is that both leaders still need a deal for political reasons, so we are likely to get one in the next few weeks, but it won‘t be this week,” said Arthur Kroeber of Gavekal Dragonomics, a financial research firm headquartered in Hong Kong. “The maneuvering right now is mainly end-of-negotiation stuff. But both sides are playing brinkmanship pretty hard so there is material risk (say 20 to 25%) that we don‘t get a deal.”

But the prolonged trade war — and Friday‘s tariff hike — serves as ammunition for hawks on both sides, who see a more confrontational struggle for global dominance unfolding…

In Washington, the lack of a deal would result in “increased tensions between the national security wing of the U.S. administration, who will be happy with this result, and the business-tech community, who are anxious to expand their participation in China and will be pretty mad,” said Kroeber, of the Hong Kong financial research firm.

More in the Stock Daily Dish.

Arthur Kroeber is a speaker at the China Speakers Bureau. Do you need him at your meeting or conference? Do get in touch or fill in our speakers’ request form.

Are you looking for more experts on the ongoing trade war between China and the US? Do check out this list.


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