While a signing ceremony seems likely for January, some of the arrangements in the phase one trade deal between China and the US sound impossible to achieve, says economist Arthur Kroeber at Money Week. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, he says.
We have a ‘phase one’ deal. It “still has some hoops to pass through”, as Arthur Kroeber notes on Gavekal. But it’s likely to happen. So what does it do?
New tariffs that were due to kick in on yesterday are being indefinitely deferred. Tariffs imposed on China by the US at the start of September, will be halved, to 7.5%. The earlier tariffs all stay in place.
China says it will more than double imports from the US by 2021. Kroeber suggests this is hard to meet “in the real world”. Chinese imports from the US hit $130bn in 2017. The idea that it will be able to boost this by $200bn by 2021 seems unrealistic given that the “biggest previous two-year jump” came in at less than $40bn.
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